With the Trump Win, Will Iran’s First Post- Sanctions Energy Deal Be Its Last?

Since sanctions were relaxed, “many Western companies did ‘window shopping’ and showed interest in investing in Iran’s energy industry,” but no deals were signed until now, said Sara Vakhshouri, a veteran of the Iranian national oil company now at the Atlantic Council. Part of that was due to a global glut of oil and natural gas, which depressed interest in new projects, but it was still “discouraging” for Iran, she told FP. But the Total deal indicates some ways to sidestep the sanctions thicket. Total is financing the deal in euros in part to avoid U.S. limitations on dollar transactions, she noted. And Vakhshouri said the deal’s timing, at least from Tehran’s point of view, was an effort to send an unmistakable signal. “By signing this deal with Total before the U.S. election is finalized, Iran eagerly sent a message to international investors that the result of the U.S. election could not have a significant impact on the nuclear deal and its energy industry,” she told Foreign Policy.

Foreign Policy: Nov. 9, 2016

 

OPEC to open freeze talks to seven non-OPEC producers, as technical meeting continues 

Representatives of OPEC's 14 countries will continue their freeze negotiations Saturday, with several non-OPEC producers slated to join the talks in Vienna, as the organization tries to widen the scope of the output deal it tentatively reached in Algiers. ... "Any contribution to the freeze agreement from OPEC or Russia will only last while the contributors are benefiting from that," said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "If the prices reach a level that US shale oil production surges significantly, OPEC, Saudi Arabia and Russia will not give up their market share to their rival."...

Platts: Oct. 28, 2016


Corralling the Cartel: OPEC and Oil Prices

Following informal OPEC talks in Algiers, members announced that they would work out a plan to reduce collective production by approximately 200 to 700 thousand barrels per day (bpd) during their next official meeting in November. However, the actual details of who will cut and by how much remain hazy. As Founder and President of SVB Energy International, Sara Vakhshouri writes, “the main challenge after this agreement will be its implementation, the details of the agreement, and how the supply will actually be reduced."...

The Cipher Brief: Oct. 21, 2016

 

EXPERT COMMENTARY The Importance of OPEC's September Agreement

The OPEC decision has both a psychological and an actual impact on the market and oil prices. At a moment, when there is a serious glut in the market, oil prices are more sensitive to any expectation of the supply and demand trend in the future. Since Iran’s nuclear deal and sanctions removal in January 2016, the prospect of Iran’s production bump has impacted expectations in the market. Iran’s production rise not only had an actual impact on market fundamentals and increased overall global supplies, it also increased the rivalry between major producers over market share. This pushed major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Angola to offer further discounts to their costumers in Asian and European markets in order to maintain and increase their market shares in those regions....

The Cipher Brief: Oct. 21, 2016

 

The Much-Speculated OPEC Freeze And What to Watch For 

Sara Vakhshouri, president of consulting firm SVB Energy and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, estimated that Iran could add 100,000 to 150,000 b/d to the market between now and the end of the year. Anything further, though, "would depend on Iran's ability to find new markets and sign new term contracts," she said.

Platts: Aug. 24, 2016


Inside the Plan to Undo the Iran Nuclear Deal

"Iran’s oil and gas sectors haven’t seen any major investment yet", said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy analyst in Washington who previously worked in Iran’s public and private energy sectors. Vakshouri lays the blame more on Iran’s shoulders than on its opponents here. Six months since sanctions were removed, Iran still hasn’t finalized its upstream investment regulations under a new petroleum contract. She blames rivalries among Iranian political groups and a lack of leadership over economic and industrial policy.

Politico: July 15, 2016

 

Complaints About The US Aside, Iran Seen Sticking to Nuclear Deal 

"If Iran walks away from the nuclear deal, it is going to lose a lot," said Sara Vakhshouri, an independent consultant on Iranian and Middle East energy and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "The country would face tougher sanctions and limitations than before in the low price environment." "Companies that at this time last year were impatiently waiting for the nuclear deal to enter Iran's energy industry have all lost their excitement in the process of waiting for the final contract approval," Vakhshouri said.

Platts: May 23, 2016

 

Iran Eyes Summer for Upstream Opening 

Approval of the IPC now rests not with the parliament but with Iran's General Inspection Organization, an arm of the country's judiciary, which has asked for a dozen or so revisions to be considered before it is approved. Zanganeh has agreed to consider these revisions and the IPC could be ready to be launched "by June or July" if the approval process goes smoothly, says Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington­based consultancy SVB Energy International.

Energy Intelligence: May 9, 2016

 

Saudi overhaul leaves crude oil policy intact

“I don’t expect the kingdom to cut its oil production at some point soon or by the June Opec meeting. The kingdom will not give up its market share to its rivals either Iran or Russia, or the US shale oil,” Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International based in Washington told Gulf News by email. On the new oil minister, Sara said Saudi Arabia followed its traditional trend of appointing a technical person as the Minister of Petroleum and head of Saudi Aramco, rather than just choosing a member of the royal family to pursue this job. “Khalid Al Falih has a technical petroleum background and education and has more than three decades of experience working in the energy industry and Saudi Aramco,” she said about the new oil minister. “The replacement of the Saudi Oil minister (Al Nuaimi) was expected and was not shocking to us especially at the time that the Deputy Crown Prince is getting ready to shake up the Kingdom’s energy and economic policy,” she said on the sacking of Al Naimi.

Gulf News: May 8, 2016

 

Saudi Arabia to create huge investment fund

Despite the fall in oil prices, there should be plenty of buyers, from investment banks to other oil companies, said Sara Vakhshouri, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. "Many people in the world want to have access or shares of the hugest oil company in the world," she said. Saudia Arabia could take a page from Norway, Vakhshouri said, which has used its oil riches to build one of the world's most successful sovereign wealth funds.

Marketplace: April 1, 2016

 

Japan mulls strategic moves in changing energy landscape, forum told

Iran's return to global crude markets with the lifting of Western sanctions against it has revived its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, other speakers pointed out. "Saudi Arabia does not seem inclined to give up the market share it gained while Iran was under international sanctions," said Sara Vakhshouri, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center. "But it was Russia which took Iran's traditional oil market share in China. In January, the Chinese imports of oil from Iran were less than in January 2015 when Iran was still under sanctions." Despite differences in their governments, the Iranians and Saudis are both trying to structure new oil supply deals in ways that reflect current global market realities, she said. "Now that a nuclear deal has been reached, Iran is suddenly open to all kinds of investments after so many years of seeing no one except the Chinese and Russians," Vakhshouri said. "Saudi Arabia has made significant agricultural investments in the US. It also owns the largest US refinery, the Motiva plant in Port Arthur, where it can decide to send its crude oil."

Oil and Gas Journal: March 11, 2016

 

Iran's New Petroleum Contract: A Break With the Past

Iran has huge oil and gas reserves and is among the top countries with oil and gas reserves, but years of sanctions and war since the 1979 revolution have prevented the country from receiving the required technology and investment. It is hoping that the new upstream contract will end the isolation.

In an interview with NGE, Iranian-born analyst Sara Vakhshouri, who runs Washington-based energy consultancy SVP and is also a senior energy fellow with the Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council said that all the ups and downs Iran has faced make it an untapped market, especially in the gas field: “Iran has huge gas reserves and the production costs of oil and gas are very low, the complexity of the rocks are very simple, the rate of return and production is high, especially in the gas fields. It's really an untapped market.”

You can read the full article here

Natural Gas Europe, February 22 2016

 

Oil rally fueled by OPEC noise, just ‘bulls clutching at straws’


“If there is a will between Saudi Arabia and Russia to control the market, it (the freeze) is going to happen,” says Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington-based analyst who once worked for the National Iranian Oil Company. “But if they are waiting for Iran, it’s not a rational decision.”
Financial Post, February 18 2016

 

Access to oil markets only a first step for Iran, UH panel says


“Iran’s main challenge is finding customers and selling oil in the current market,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of energy consulting group SVB Energy International.

Iranian officials have said they plan to immediately boost production by 500,000 barrels per day and add another 500,000 barrels per day over the next six months. But those barrels will need to carve out space in a global market already flush with oil, Vakhshouri said.

Europe could be the prime target. “Iran lost about 600,000 barrels per day of market share in Europe when sanctions took effect,” she said, adding that they may be able to claw back as much as 250,000 barrels per day of crude.

Fuel Fix, February 15 2016 

 

What's up with Saudi Arabia and its oil?

Mideast energy consultant Sara Vakhshouri said a price war sinks high-cost producers, like fracking companies. They drill in shale rock in America and want to go global.

"The low prices really kept the shale revolution a U.S. phenomenom, rather than expanding it to countries like China," he said.

And, Vakhshouri said the move to cut prices keeps the world's car drivers addicted to petroleum, rather than trying alternatives.

"The low oil prices could slightly push global demand high," he said. "It of course makes it harder for renewables to progress as fast as they were doing."

Market Place, February 21 2016

 

Davos Diary: Iran Insists It’s Open for Business. Will It Have Any Customers?

“Huge oil and gas resources with very low production costs and low geological complexity are very attractive for investors, particularly at the current time of low oil prices,” Sara Vakhshouri, formerly of the Iranian national oil company and now head of energy consultancy SVB Energy International, told Foreign Policy.
The new contracts, Vakhshouri said, are “much more flexible and attractive” than the old terms, but by themselves would not likely be enough to entice Big Oil away from easier projects elsewhere. In that sense, she said, low oil prices and low production costs are “Iran’s lucky charm to attract international investors.”
For the gas game, Vakhshouri said, Iran’s “massive gas reserves and unique geographical position” could one day make it a key player for markets both West and East.


Foreign Policy, January 22 2016

 

Saudi Arabia-Iran Conflict, Rising Middle East Tensions Add To Oil Market Uncertainty

“Even though this is the strongest direct tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the 1980s, the possibility of a military clash or any action that could interrupt the oil production and supply flow of the two countries is very less likely,” Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based consultancy SVB Energy International, told The Fuse. “Both countries are heavily dependent on their oil revenue, particularly at the current time of low oil prices.”
“Ironically, the events could actually contribute to the market’s expectation of oversupply in the near future as it loses hope in cooperation between the two countries to control output,” said Vakhshouri.

Energy Fuse, January 5 2016

 

Foreign firms dash to get in on Iran 'gold rush' – but US companies left out in cold

"Despite its huge oil and gas reserves, US energy companies are treading carefully. Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said: “I really cannot imagine in 2016 seeing any major US energy companies going in.

“Very important for these firms is security. Even if the sanctions are lifted, if you’re Chevron or ExxonMobil and you’re sending American personnel to Iran, you’re going to be concerned until relations are normalized.”

The Guardian, January 2 2016

 

End of oil export ban will have a small impact in the short term

Sara Vakhshouri, an energy analyst at SVB Energy International and the Atlantic Council think tank, said the end of the export ban will help stabilize global oil prices.

Some of the world’s major producing countries, such as Iraq, Syria and Libya have oil fields that are threatened or under control of terrorists, such as the Islamic State group. International airstrikes to counter those terrorists, who have sold oil to raise funds, have destroyed oil facilities. That takes that oil off the marketand affects prices, Vakhshouri said.

“So it’s really important to have supply from countries not in these areas, including the U.S.,” she said.

USA Today, December 16 2015

 

U.N.: Iran conducted nuclear weapons research as recently as 2009

Iran is poised to add a half million barrels a day to the saturated world oil supply by mid-2016, once the sanctions relief goes into effect, said Sara Vakhshouri, a senior energy fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

Positive news on Iran’s nuclear agreement with world powers "could have a psychological downward impact on the global oil prices,” Vakhshouri said. “This could happen even before Iran increases its export volumes.”

USA Today, December 15 2015

 

LNG Exports the Most Powerful Demonstration of US Geopolitics in Decades

With the signing of the nuclear deal in July, Iran has decided to move on, and its natural gas industry expects to benefit from increased trade in oil and gas services and technology that are no longer being held up by sanctions.

“They are very aware that they lost the opportunity for exporting gas as LNG,” said Sara Vakhshouri, an Iranian energy analyst with SVB Energy International in Washington. “Iran’s major investment for gas export is by pipeline” to neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Iraq, India, and Oman.

Real Clear Energy, December 13 2015

 

New Iranian Oil and Gas Contracts Extend 20-25 Years


This new model offers an attractive option to companies looking for projects in the Middle East, Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International and Senior Energy Fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, told Oil & Gas 360®.
“It’s difficult to attract investment anywhere right now with low oil prices, but low production costs mean Iran is still competitive,” said Vakhshouri. “The IPCs are very similar to the contracts offered by Iraq’s central government, but without some of the security issues associated with groups like ISIS.”
“NIOC hopes to increase the quality of work and protect its oil and gas reservoirs by engaging international companies for longer periods of time,” said Vakhshouri. “This will give the investors a more vested stake in the field and could create political advantages for the country, as investing companies would have long-term interest in Iran.”
Another major concern for companies looking to invest in Iranian oil and gas fields are their options for arbitration should problems arise during the project. “Companies with bilateral agreements with Iran can go through international arbitration if problems arise,” said Vakhshouri. “Otherwise, they will need to go through the Iranian court system.”
“[Zanganeh] is trying to leave the door open for more input from countries as Iran prepares for sanctions to be lifted,” said Vakhshouri, when asked about the oil minister’s comments.
Oil and Gas 360, 3 December 2015

Analysis: Russia-Iran courtship has its limits


Iran, whose economy has been stifled by years of nuclear sanctions, plans to develop its oil and natural gas fields and increase output by 1 million barrels a day, or about 25%, by mid-2016, says energy analyst Sara Vakhshouri, of SVB Energy International in Washington. That will put downward pressure on prices that are already at their lowest point in decades, Vakhshouri wrote in a recent study.
USA Today, 23 November 2015

 

Düşük petrol fiyatları İran’ı cazip kılıyor


Atlantik Konseyi Küresel Enerji Merkezi’nde Kıdemli Araştırmacı olan Sara Vakhshouri ise İran’ın petrolünü küresel pazarda satmak için kendi ham petrol tanker filosunu kurmaya başladığını söyleyerek, “İran yaptırımlar kalkar kalkmaz ham petrol üretimini günlük 500 bin varil, bir sonraki altı ayda 500 bin varil daha artırabilir” dedi. 
Harriyet, 22 November 2015

 

Iran Avoiding The Guards


... While Iran’s Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act generally puts no limitations on the share of investment for foreign investors, enabling up to 100% ownership, the situation is different in the upstream oil and gas sector. “Foreign investors were in the past required to enter into joint ventures with an Iranian local partner. This is to maintain domestic control over sensitive upstream oil and gas projects,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington-based SVB Energy International, an energy consultancy...
...Experts say the guards are connected to many, possibly hundreds, of companies in the country, making it potentially difficult and time-consuming to avoid entering into business with them, knowingly or not. “This will complicate and prolong the duration of negotiations and choosing the domestic partner for the foreign firms,” Vakhshouri said...

Energy Compass (Energy Intelligence), 4 September 2015

 

Iran Gets Ready to Sell to the World


.... Even if Iran can increase production as quickly as Zanganeh claims, it may have to incentivize buyers by offering lower prices or by trading oil for goods or services, says Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, an energy consulting group in Washington. That’s because the Saudis have used long-term contracts to lock in customers who not long ago bought Iranian oil....
Bloomberg, 10 September 2015
 

Foreign firms scramble to fix Iran's refineries once sanctions end

Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said scores of western oil industry officials are clamoring for this business. There would be huge competition but the right companies should be able to succeed. "If you can bring the technology needed, it shouldn't be tough," Vakhshouri said

Reuters, 17 August 2015

 

Iran to become competitor to Russia in energy markets


Sara Vakhshouri, president of the Washington-based SVB Energy International and a consultant at the National Iranian Oil Company, said that Iran would be an important competitor to Russia in the global oil and natural gas markets after the nuclear agreement was signed with P5+1 countries comprising the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany.

Vakhshouri told Anadolu Agency that there would be a fierce competition in the global energy markets between Iran and Russia, which have become allies recently thanks to the mutual steps taken by the two countries. Emphasizing that European energy companies have already started to negotiate with Iranian energy authorities due to the country's vast oil and natural gas reserves, Vakhshouri said: "Iran has made new investment regulations for the energy sector. Those regulations are creating a much more attractive investment climate compared to the past."

Now that sanction will be lifted and new regulations are enforced, Iran can reach the technology that it needs to increase its oil and natural gas production, Vakhshouri said, adding: "Europe is trying to decrease its dependency on Russia oil and natural gas after the Ukraine crisis. Iran is a perfect alternative for Europe's energy diversity." She also stressed that Russia was not as attractive as before for energy investments because of the sanctions imposed on the country.

Daily Sabah, 22 July 2015

 

A new era for 'energy titans' begins

Sara Vakhshouri, the head of Washington-based energy company, SVB Energy International, and a former advisor to National Iranian Oil Company International, told Anadolu Agency that many European energy companies have already started negotiations with Iranian energy officials.

Vakhshouri, who noted Iran's massive oil and gas resources, said that its oil, gas and condensate production will rise in the next few years. She added that Iran has introduced new investment plans to attract foreign investment in their upstream energy sector. The so-called 'Iran Petroleum Contracts,' offer more enticing terms than their previous oil contracts.

Anadolu Agency, 21 July 2015
 

Dünya enerji piyasalarında Rusya-İran rekabeti

Vakhshouri, AA muhabirine yaptığı açıklamada, son dönemde karşılıklı atılan adımlarla müttefik konumuna gelen Rusya ve İran arasında özellikle küresel enerji piyasalarında büyük bir rekabet yaşanacağını savundu.

Sahip olduğu önemli petrol ve doğalgaz rezervleri nedeniyle Avrupalı enerji şirketlerinin şimdiden İranlı enerji yetkilileriyle görüşmeye başladığına işaret eden Vakhshouri, "İran enerji sektörü için yeni yatırım düzenlemeleri gerçekleştirdi. Bu düzenlemeler, eskiye oranla çok daha cazip bir yatırım ortamı yaratıyor" dedi.

TimeTurk, 21 July 2015

 

Iran enerjide Rusya’ya rakip olacak

İran Ulusal Petrol Şirketi danışmanlarından SVB Enerji Şirketi Başkanı Sara Vakhshouri enerji piyasalarının geleceğiyle ilgili AA’ya konuştu. Vakshouri, son dönemde yakın stratejik ilişkiler geliştiren Rusya ve İran arasında, küresel enerji piyasalarında büyük bir rekabet yaşanacağını savundu.

EuroNews, 21 July 2015

 

Iran’s Return to Oil Markets Is Good for Energy Firms but Bad for Russia

Sara Vakhshouri, a former advisor to National Iranian Oil Company International, said Iran is going to need quite a bit of outside help to reach its target of producing 5 million barrels per day by 2020.

“To reach this goal Iran would need $70 billion of investment in its oil and gas fields,” Vakhshouri, who is now president of SVB Energy International, wrote in a note circulated Tuesday morning.

here will be a short-term impact to Tehran’s getting back into the oil game, though it won’t be nearly as substantial as the long-term impact. Iran is thought to have oil reserves of approximately 40 million barrels sitting on offshore tankers waiting to be sold. “This amount of stored oil can be sold even before any removal of oil export related sanctions. China, India, South Korea and Japan [all] have waivers from sanctions,” Vakhshouri wrote.

“Iran can also increase its oil and condensate production up to 800,000 barrels per day within the next six to 12 months,” Vakhshouri said in a subsequent interview with FP.

Vakhshouri said this presents Russian President Vladimir Putin with a difficult choice: cooperate or suffer.

“If the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East don’t cause any supply interruption, the market, the oil producers — mainly OPEC and Russia — have to agree whether to reduce their production or … start a price war,” she said.

Foreign Policy, 14 July 2015

 

Oil prices turn volatile after Iran reaches nuke deal

Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington-based energy analyst at SVB Energy International, said that with Iran's sanctions lifted it would be able to boost its oil production from 2.9 million barrels a day to 4.2 million barrels a day by 2020.

Oil prices can also be expected to drop, Vakhshouri said, because Iran has as much as 37 million barrels of crude in storage on tankers floating in the Persian Gulf.

USA Today, 14 July 2015

 

Iranian oil expected to drive prices down

Iran could boost production from 2.9 million barrels to 4.2 million barrels per day by 2020, said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy analyst with SVB International. Iran also could immediately lower prices because it has stored about 37 million barrels of oil and condensate, a form of light oil, on offshore tankers that it can quickly release to the market.

Washington Examiner, 14 July 2015

 

What the Iran nuclear deal means for oil prices

Even if all goes according to plan, the US and EU won't lift sanctions on Iran until 2016 at the earliest. Once that happens, Iran can finally start selling some of the roughly 30 to 40 million barrels of oil it currently has stored in vast floating tankers off its coast. That could push down, modestly, on oil prices.
VOX, 14 July 2015

 

Iran Deal Reached: Predictions on Added Crude Exports Range from 400-800 MBOPD

A Credit Suisse conference call that was held with Iranian expert Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki forecast about 500 MBOPD coming back online by year-end 2015; analysts at Raymond James expect more than 500 MBOPD in the next 12-18 months; SVB Energy International predicts as much as 800 MBOPD (400-600 MBOPD in crude and an additional 200 MBOPD in condensate) in the next 6-12 months; Wood Mackenzie expects that exports will not reach 600 MBOPD until year-end 2017; and the IEA anticipates 800 MBOPD “within months of lifting sanctions.”

Oil and Gas 360, 14 July 2015

 

The Future of Saudi-Iranian Relations Will Be Written in Oil

Sara Vakhshouri, whose analyses of Iran’s energy sector have been featured on LobeLog, argues that the oil ministry has set its sights too high. She recently wrote, “Iran would probably be capable of adding up to 800,000 b/d of oil and liquids to its production in the next 6 to 12 months.” The decision to actually produce that amount will also depend on the timing of sanctions relief and the state of the market itself. Regardless, Iran will need access to international investment and technology in order to sustain and then expand this forecasted production capacity. Its aging oil fields are performing poorly in the absence of technically sophisticated injections of gas and water.

Vakhshouri estimates that since 2011, Iran has failed to meet more than 60% of its injection targets. She believes that Iran’s goal of reaching an output of 5.7 million b/d is overly ambitious. “It will take at least 3 to 4 years for Iran (from the time that it gets access to international investment and technology) to regain its pre-sanctions ‘crude oil’ production capacity,” said Vakhshouri. Since Iran’s production capacity hovered around 4 million b/d in the late 2000s, Iran could reasonably add a little over 1 million b/d in the first few years after an agreement.

Lobelog, 11 July 2015

 

نحوه بازگشت ایران به بازارهای انرژی دنیا در دوران پساتحریم

وسسه مشاوره انرژی SVB به تازگی در گزارشی با بررسی شرایط بازگشت ایران به بازارهای جهانی نفت و گاز در دوره پساتحریم پیش بینی کرد که این کشور می تواند ظرف ٦ ماه تا یک سال، روزانه ٨٠٠ هزار بشکه به تولید نفت خام و مایعات گازی خود بیفزاید.

به گزارش شانا، موسسه مشاوره انرژی اس وی بی (SVB Energy International LLC) مستقر در واشینگتن در گزارشی با عنوان «بازگشت ایران به بازار انرژی در دوره پساتحریم» برآورد کرد که تولید کنونی نفت خام ایران روزانه حدود ٢ میلیون و ٩٠٠ هزار بشکه است، به طوری که تولید میعانات گازی و مایعات گازی حدود ٦٩٢ هزار تا ٧١٠ هزار بشکه در روز است.

مطالعات موسسه مشاوره انرژی اس وی بی نشان می دهد که ایران پس از دستیابی به یک توافق جامع هسته ای با کشورهای گروه ١+٥ می تواند ظرف ٦ ماه تا یک سال روزانه ٨٠٠ هزار بشکه نفت و مایعات گازی به تولید خود بیفزاید.

...بر اساس این گزارش، روزانه ٤٠٠ تا ٦٠٠ هزار بشکه از این مقدار نفت خام و ٢٠٠ هزار بشکه دیگر آن میعانات گازی خواهد بود.

Shana.ir, 11 July 2015

 

伊朗核谈判有望达成协议 原油暴跌近8%

前伊朗石油公司分析师、现SVB主席Sara Vakhshouri表示,“一旦协议达成,伊朗可以增加20万桶/日的凝析油产量。另外,随着West Karun油田项目的完成,到2020年伊朗还可以额外增加65-70万桶的原油日产量。”

不过,Vakhshouri指出,要在2020年达到上述的中期产量目标,伊朗需要700亿美元的投资。

他还表示,到2018年South Pars的凝析油日产量将触及70-80万桶,2020年再升至100万桶。

Sina Finance, 7 July 2015

 

Lawmakers alarmed over Iranian nuclear windfall

The lifting of other sanctions would allow Iran to boost its oil production from 2.9 million barrels a day to 4.2 million barrels a day by 2020, according to a report by Washington-based energy analyst Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy International. Oil prices are likely to fall in reaction to Iran's new oil output, Vakhshouri said.

USA Today, 5 July 2015
 

Iran's oil output goals likely unrealistic because of risk, report says


"A more realistic assessment would be an expansion of up to 800,000 b/d within six months and a major oil output rebound only after 2016, though even this pace would put Iran on course for a structural shift and acceleration from the current modest pace of economic growth," the Center for a New American Security report states.

The report claims it is unlikely that Iran's crude oil capacity -- currently at an estimated 3.8 million b/d -- would exceed 4.5 million to 5 million b/d by the early 2020s, or 5.5 million b/d by 2030.

Platts, 23 June 2015

 

Will Western Firms Really Race Into Iran After a Nuclear Deal?

A Center for a New American Security report released Tuesday argues it could take months, if not years, for Western companies and institutional investors like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to invest in Iran’s economy. There’s a simple reason: It’s not worth the risk.
“The significant theme here is it’s not going to be this tsunami of money pouring into Iran,” Rosenberg, who is a senior fellow at CNAS, said. She coauthored the report with Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International.

Foreign Policy, 23 June 2015

 

Iranian nuke deal won’t lead to immediate windfall, think tank asserts

“A nuclear deal with Iran will not initiate an unchecked windfall of capital into Iran, a factor that may undermine Iran’s confidence in a deal and the incentive structure for its adherence,” authors Elizabeth Rosenberg and Sara Vakhshouri wrote.

“The maintenance of some sanctions on Iran, even in a best-case scenario for nuclear diplomacy, and the threat of re-imposing tough economic sanctions if Iran circumvents the deal will serve concomitantly to temper what would otherwise be enthusiastic and potentially ubiquitous investment into Iran.

The Hill, 23 June 2015

 

IRAN FACES HURDLES HIKING OIL PRODUCTION WHEN SANCTIONS LIFTED

Dr. Sara Vakhshouri wrote a piece on Iran's technical capability and market access for increasing its oil production rebound after the sanctions.

'For an oil market destabilized by geopolitical turbulence and oversupply, an important question is when Iranian production, now limited by international sanctions, might recover and rise toward the Islamic Republic's geologic potential. The question gains importance this month, by the end of which officials of Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany are to have concluded an agreement on Iranian development of nuclear weapons. Because Iranian negotiators have made ending the sanctions against it a priority, the possibility of a surge in exports from the country looms over the market.

Yet a combination of factors complicates the ability of Iran to bring large new supply quickly to the market. Sanctions on oil exports are not the only impediment. The country also must solve technical problems, grapple with international sanctions on investment, and regain lost market share...'

Oil and Gas Journal, 1 June 2015

 

OPEC meeting may be lull before the storm

"I don't think any significant decisions will come out of this meeting," Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington energy analyst, said of the upcoming session. "But if Iran reaches a deal, there's going to be more to discuss and more expectations at the next meeting."

Vakhshouri, a former market analyst for the National Iranian Oil Company, said Teheran, with a nuclear deal in hand, would insist that other OPEC members "reduce their production and open space" for Iran to sell more oil on world markets...."If everything goes well by the end of June or early July, and sanctions start easing for Iran by the end of the year, Iran's production is going to rise slightly by the end of the year," she said.

However, Vakhshouri notes that a nuclear agreement alone is unlikely to trigger big changes in oil prices soon. Iran's exports, which have fallen from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2012, when the sanctions began to take effect, to 1.1 million barrels a day now, will need time to recover, she said...."Considering all of the political turmoil in the Middle East, where most of the crude oil flow is coming from, prices have been relatively low," she said.

USA Today, 31 May 2015

 

Iran oil to put pressure on prices as nuclear talks in critical stage

Dr Sara Vakhshouri, President of the US based SVB Energy International and an expert on Iran said Iran can technically increase its oil production between 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day within 3 to 6 months.

“However this increase could only happen if there is an ease on sanctions against Iran’s oil exports, and also capability of this country for finding new markets. It will have an immediate psychological effect on the market and will push the prices down.”

Gulf News, 28 March 2015

 

‘Spiderweb’ of sanctions means Iranian oil unlikely to flood the market

“Iran could increase its oil production between 500,000 to 800,000 bpd within three to six months,” according to Sara Vakhshouri, a Washington-based consultant who once worked at the National Iranian Oil Company."  There are multi-layered sanctions by multiple entities and you cannot just flip a switch and make them go away.

“According to Iran’s five-year plan, the country had to invest US$255 billion in its energy industry from 2011-2015,” Ms. Vakhshouri said, noting that the industry fell well short of that target due to international sanctions and a ban on foreign investment."

Financial Post, 23 March 2015


Despite Netanyahu claim, cheap oil not seen swaying Iran behavior

"It is not possible for the United States to keep this consensus against Iran with European countries and other countries for much longer," said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy consultant based in Washington who formerly worked in Iran's energy sector. "The sanctions and this consensus could erode after some time."

Reuters, 5 March 2015

 

Shale revolution will 'undermine' rivals, says Sen. Bill Cassidy

...'Middle East oil is projected to maintain its market share despite the competition from U.S. shale', said Sara Vakhshouri, president of consulting firm SVB Energy International. But it won't increase its slice of the pie because demand in the region is rising as petrochemicals industries soar and fuel subsidies encourage waste.

Washington Examiner, 26 February 2015

 

For Saudi Arabia, Supply and Demand Trump Geopolitics

.."But lower oil prices today could provide an opportunity for Iran to regain its lost market share in the medium to long term. More than half of Iran’s export capacity was wiped out due to sanctions after 2011. What with the anticipated growth in overall oil supplies from unconventional sources – as well as from Iraq, whose production was expected to increase rapidly with the signing of major contracts with Western oil companies, at least before the Islamic State’s big offensive – the market neither wanted nor needed a flood of Iranian crude. But if current low oil prices persist over the next two years and unconventional oil production declines, Iranian oil will be poised to take up the slack, particularly if Tehran reaches an agreement with the P5+1 on its nuclear program. However, it would take a year or two before Iran could increase its oil production to anywhere near pre-sanctions levels."

Lobelog-  6 January 2015


End of Iran sanctions to benefit UAE
 

Recently at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Dr Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International said an additional oil of 500,000 to 600,000 barrels of oil per day will enter market in the next six to eight months if sanctions on Iran are lifted.

Gulf New- 6 January 2015

 

Iran, Iraq face difficult time as oil prices plunge

Dr Sara Vakhshouri, president of US-based SVB Energy International and an expert on Iran, said the country’s economy is going to hurt but they could overcome this by raising taxes. 

“I think they can manage it but it depends for how long. It will be hard for people due to taxes.”

Gulf News- 30 November 2014

 

Oil to be in focus at Abu Dhabi energy meet

Abu Dhabi: Important issues affecting the oil and gas industry will be discussed as part of an annual energy conference being held at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research (Ecssr) in Abu Dhabi from Tuesday. Dr Sara Vakhshouri, president of the US based SVB Energy International will talk about Iran, potential and implications of a full return to energy markets during the conference.

Gulf News- 17 November 2014

 

Iran faces a budget deficit as oil prices fall

"The best strategy for Iran would be to reach an agreement with the group of P5+1 countries (United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany) so that sanctions are eased and the country would be able to increase its production and export. This could reduce its budgetary gap and help Iran to regain its pre-sanctions market share,” said Sara Vakhshouri, President of US-based SVB Energy International, a global strategic energy consulting firm specialised in oil and gas industry.

She said that Iran will not push for production cuts at this month’s Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meeting in Vienna.

“Therefore it’s not in Iran’s interest to push for Opec production drop, as its export is already at its minimum range and this country would not want to lose additional market share. Also, if Opec and Iran reduce their production, there is no guarantee that non-Opec producers would do the same,” she added.

Gulf News- 3 November 2014

 

Is Iran in Oil Price War with Saudi Arabia?

"Saudi Arabia has started reducing its oil prices without cutting its production, and could have different reasons for this. Change of sale strategy could be the most important cause of this action. Saudi’s strategy has been shifted from maintaining a higher range of oil prices in to ‘maintaining and securing its market share’. Instead of waiting for more oil to come into the market and drop the prices, Saudi has take the initiative to adjust itself and its economy to the lower oil price and increasing its market share by offering discounted oil prices."......"Regarding the oil pricing and sale strategy, Iran has already taken the best possible strategy to maintain its market share by offering the same range of discounts that Saudi is offering to its customers. Iran is currently struggling with different sanctions and limitation on its oil export and cannot easily increase its production and export in order to reduce the gap of its expected revenue based on the previous price range. However the reality of the market, lower demand growth and bullish supply growth, has created a serious competition among the major oil producers in the market to maintain and secure their market share. Therefore, Iran has to play the same game that others are playing."

Iran Review- 17 October 2014

 

Explainer: The Oil Price Plunge

..."On the one hand, the acceleration of higher energy efficiency, combined with higher energy prices, the economic crisis in Europe and lower economic growth in China have all put pressure on overall energy demand growth. On the other hand, the global energy supply has had a bullish growth mainly because of the shale oil boom in North America and Iraqi oil output. Yet the lower growth of demand and the higher rate of supply growth have both altered concerns over energy security paradigms, shifting from the security of supply to concerns about the security of demand and the profitability of oil production (in the case of unconventional oil). Keen competition among producers to maintain market share, concerns over the unconventional oil production’s profitability, and the effect of lower oil prices on oil dependent economies are all consequences of this broader change in the balance between supply and demand in global energy markets."...

Lobelog- 16 October 2014

 

 Iran, One Year Under Rouhani

“Rouhani and his team’s efforts to reduce sanctions on Iran through the nuclear talks has so far prevented the further cutting of Iranian crude oil production and exports,” said Sara Vakhshouri, an energy expert and former advisor to the National Iranian Oil Company.

“The [sanctions relief] has not had an immediate significant effect on the economy, but it has certainly had a positive psychological impact on the people,” she said...

IPSNews- 4 August 2014

 

 Iraqi Turmoil And the Global Oil Market

On Saturday June 21, Iraq’s largest refinery at Baiji finally succumbed to the forces of the radical Sunni militant group, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, often referred to as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS), after being under siege for nearly two weeks...

Lobelog- 30 June 2014

 

Russia, China Finally Sign $400 Billion Energy Deal: Why Now?

After almost a decade of negotiations, Moscow reached a 400 billion dollar energy deal with Beijing yesterday, allowing the Russian state-controlled Gazprom to export gas to China for 30 years.

Lobelog-  22 May 2014 

 

 Iran- Russia Energy Deal

يساور الولايات المتحدة الأميركية قلق من مساعي إيران لإبرام اتفاق مقايضة خاص بالطاقة مع روسيا، وذلك بعد أن أحرزت طهران وموسكو تقدما باتجاه اتفاق لمبادلة النفط بالسلع قالت مصادر إيرانية إن قيمته قد تبلغ عشرين مليار دولار، وسيمكن طهران من تعزيز صادراتها النفطية الحيوية في تحد للعقوبات التي يفرضها الغرب

Aljazeera- April 2014

 

Iran-India energy ties may take off

Following the Geneva interim deal on Nov. 24, 2013, and the partial ease of sanctions against Iran, India’s oil secretary, Vivek Rae, announced that India is ready to pay $1.5 billion to Iran for its oil imports...

Al-Monitor- 5 March 2014

 

The Ukraine Crisis: A Game-Changer in the Global Energy Market?

The tension between Russia and the West, and particularly the European Union, over Crimea has once again raised questions over the security of energy supplies and the use of energy as a tool of foreign policy and diplomacy...

Lobelog- 9 April 2014

 

Gasoline Prices: Iran’s Achilles’ Heel

he new gasoline prices were announced at midnight on April 24 by the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC).The price for the semi-subsidized gasoline will be 7,000 rials per liter (27 cents) and 10,000 rials (42 cents) for free market price gasoline...

Lobelog- 25 April 2014

 

Iran offers new terms for oil contracts

The new Iran Petroleum Contract will offer greater incentives to international oil and gas investors by offering higher potential profits and lower investment risks. The goal of contract is to attract investment and technology to the Iranian oil industry and to increase the industry’s overall ...

Al-Monitor- 26 February 2014

 

Iran’s Return to the Market could Send Prices Diving

Iran’s return to the oil market could trigger a “positive supply shock,” sending oil prices plunging by as much as US$20 per barrel, although Saudi Arabia will probably move swiftly to ensure a softer, $10-drop in crude prices..

Financial Post- 26 September 2013

 

Iran Oil Minister Vows to Revive Output as He Eyes Price War
In his first few days as oil minister in President Hassan Rohani’s new government in Tehran, the 61-year-old initiated plans to revive oil production to pre-2005 levels, hinted at a price war to win old customers and brought back managers sidelined by the previous administration...

Bloomberg- 22 August 2013

 

Iran's Oil Minister Confronts Sanctions

Iran's oil personnel and managers became adept then at navigating hurdles and blockages. For example, shipping Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, with the high risk of being targeted by Iraqi missiles, was one of their formative experiences...

Atlantic Council- August 2013

 

Production-Sharing Contracts Could Help Renew Iran Oil Market

For the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran is offering production-sharing contracts (PSCs) for investment in its upstream energy field, which involves exploration and production stage of the hydrocarbons industry...

Al- Monitor- 24 June 2013

 

Iran’s Oil Production At Lowest Since 1986

In the last week of April, the US Energy Department issued a report showing that Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports have dropped to their lowest level in the past 26 years. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Iran’s net oil export revenue in 2012 was $69 billion, down from $95 billion in 2011...

Lobelog- 8 May 2013

 

Is Iran’s December Oil Export Hike Permanent?

Sanctions against Iran by the European Union and the United States, which aim to change Iran’s attitude toward its nuclear program, have increased pressure on its oil export and revenue. This resulted in the reduction of Iran’s oil exports from 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2011 to around between 900 thousand to slightly above 1 million bpd until October 2012...

Lobelog-  6 February 2013

 

WATCHING GOVERNMENT: THE IRANIAN OIL QUESTION

From the outset, the discussion's question seemed provocative: Can the world live without Iranian oil? Panelists at the Dec. 5 event at the Atlantic Council agreed that global prices haven't shot up because the country's production has fallen so far in recent years...

Oil and Gas Journal-  14 December 2012  

 

Saudi Arabia's challenge: Decouple fiscal spending from crude price

"The Arab Spring forced the kingdom to increase its public expenditure in order to keep its 27 million people calm. Saudi Arabia's domestic expenses in 2011 increased to USD 129 billion, which is about half of its oil revenues," Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, president at Washington D.C.-based SVB Energy International, told Zawya.

"It is estimated that the country needs to sell its oil at least in the range of USD 80 to USD 85 per barrel to balance its budget. This number is expected to increase to above USD 110 per barrel within the next couple of years," Dr. Vakhshouri said.

Zawya-  26 September 2013

 

Iranian Gas In US Cross-Hairs

"I think the sanctions ... have two goals," Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington consultancy SVB Energy International and previously an advisor to the director of National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), tells WGI. "To increase the psychological pressure on Iran and to prevent Iran from having any long-term strategic relations with its gas customers. [A decision] may not have a significant effect on Iran's income or on the global gas market ... but it will prevent Iran's gas consumers from having a long-term trade and reliance on the country's gas." 

World Gas Intelligence- 22 August 2012

 

Rising Iraqi Oil Output Greases Iran Sanctions

Despite bureaucratic hurdles in Iraq and the continued absence of a national oil law, the challenges there to production and exports pale in comparison to Iran’s situation...

Al- Monitor- 26 June 2012